Aptenodytes forsteri 

Scope: Global
Language: English
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Taxonomy [top]

Kingdom Phylum Class Order Family
Animalia Chordata Aves Sphenisciformes Spheniscidae

Scientific Name: Aptenodytes forsteri
Species Authority: Gray, 1844
Common Name(s):
English Emperor Penguin
Spanish Pingüino emperador
Taxonomic Source(s): del Hoyo, J., Collar, N.J., Christie, D.A., Elliott, A. and Fishpool, L.D.C. 2014. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Lynx Edicions BirdLife International, Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge, UK.

Assessment Information [top]

Red List Category & Criteria: Near Threatened ver 3.1
Year Published: 2016
Date Assessed: 2016-10-01
Assessor(s): BirdLife International
Reviewer(s): Butchart, S. & Symes, A.
Contributor(s): Ainley, D., Ballard, G., DuBois, L., Fretwell, P., Kooyman, G., Makhado, A., Schmidt, A., Schneider, T., Trathan, P., Wienecke, B. & Woehler, E.
Facilitator/Compiler(s): Butchart, S., Calvert, R., Ekstrom, J., Moreno, R., Taylor, J., Trathan, P., Wienecke, B.
Justification:
This species has been uplisted to Near Threatened because it is projected to undergo a moderately rapid population decline over the next three generations owing to the effects of projected climate change. However, it should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty over future climatic changes and how these will impact the species.
Previously published Red List assessments:

Geographic Range [top]

Range Description:

Aptenodytes forsteri has a circumpolar range, restricted when breeding to the coast of Antarctica where breeding colonies occur right around the continent (Fretwell et al. 2012). At least ¾ of the breeding colonies of this species are vulnerable to predicted changes in sea ice conditions and 1/5 may be quasi-extinct by 2100 (Jenouvrier et al. 2014). There are regional variations in population declines but colonies located north of 70°S have a probability of 46% to decrease by up to >90% by the end of this century (Jenouvrier et al. 2014).  

Countries occurrence:
Native:
Antarctica
Vagrant:
Argentina; Chile; Falkland Islands (Malvinas); French Southern Territories; Heard Island and McDonald Islands; New Zealand; South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
Additional data:
Continuing decline in area of occupancy (AOO):Yes
Extreme fluctuations in area of occupancy (AOO):NoEstimated extent of occurrence (EOO) - km2:11600000
Continuing decline in extent of occurrence (EOO):YesExtreme fluctuations in extent of occurrence (EOO):No
Continuing decline in number of locations:Yes
Extreme fluctuations in the number of locations:No
Upper elevation limit (metres):500
Range Map:Click here to open the map viewer and explore range.

Population [top]

Population:

A survey of satellite images from 2009 found 46 colonies containing c.238,000 breeding pairs, suggesting a total of c.595,000 individuals (Fretwell et al. 2012). Since then, a further seven colonies have been discovered bringing the total number to 53 (Fretwell, pers. com.). The global population estimate has not yet been updated.



Trend Justification:  An analysis carried out by Ainley et al. (2010) suggests that all colonies north of 67-68°S could be lost when Earth's tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with negative impacts on all colonies north of 70°S. In this study, 2042 is the median year (range 2025-2052) at which a 2°C warming is  forecast to be exceeded by the four climate models used (those models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report [AR4] that most closely predicted data collected on environmental conditions in the Southern Ocean over recent decades) (Ainley  et al. 2010).  An ensemble of these models was then used to predict changes in climate and  habitat in the Southern Ocean until 2025-2052, namely sea ice extent,  persistence, concentration and thickness, wind speeds, precipitation and  air temperature. Predictions were then made based on historic responses of the species to past variations in environmental conditions (Ainley et al. 2010). According to a survey of satellite images by Fretwell  et al. (2012), the global population in 2009 is estimated at c.238,000 breeding pairs, including nine colonies north of 67°S, accounting for c.36,600 pairs. Assuming the loss of these colonies and an exponential population trend, BirdLife International has projected that a decline of c.27% in the number of breeding pairs will occur over the next 61 years (three generations). There are substantial uncertainties over future changes in the patterns of weather variables and how these are likely to impact the species, as well as whether there will be a lag in the decline of mature individuals as recruitment falls, or whether this decline will be proportional to the loss of colonies as climatic changes result in the increased mortality of mature individuals. The relocation of A. forsteri colonies will be limited by decreases in sea ice thickness, making it more difficult for them to  find stable, long-lasting fast ice for breeding (Ainley  et al. 2010). Colonies could  conceivably move to any areas of coastline not affected by ridges formed  by wind-blown pack ice; however, where this has occurred in the past it  has been regarded as a rare event. Importantly, it has been argued that a simple latitudinal gradient in the loss of  sea ice is unlikely, and that warming has so far been regional in the Antarctic (Zwally  et al. 2002, Turner et al. 2009, Trathan et al. 2011, Fretwell et al. 2012). With these uncertainties in mind, a precautionary approach is taken, and the population is projected to decline by 20-29% over the next three generations.
Current Population Trend:Unknown
Additional data:
Number of mature individuals:595000Continuing decline of mature individuals:Yes
Extreme fluctuations:NoPopulation severely fragmented:No
Continuing decline in subpopulations:Unknown
Extreme fluctuations in subpopulations:NoAll individuals in one subpopulation:No

Habitat and Ecology [top]

Habitat and Ecology:This species is marine and pelagic, feeding mainly on fish in Antarctic waters (although krill and cephalopods can be important dietary components). It breeds almost exclusively on fast ice near the coast or on the coast itself, sometimes up to as much as 200 km from the open sea. Only one known colony occurs wholly on land (Robertson et al. 2014) while a small number uses available land for parts of their breeding cycle. Four colonies are known to locate at least temporarily onto the top of ice shelves (Fretwell et al. 2014). It has an annual breeding cycle, arriving at colonies in late March to April, and lays eggs in May/ June. Chicks fledge in December/January (del Hoyo et al. 1992).
Systems:Terrestrial; Marine
Continuing decline in area, extent and/or quality of habitat:Yes
Generation Length (years):20.4
Movement patterns:Full Migrant
Congregatory:Congregatory (and dispersive)

Threats [top]

Major Threat(s):


Conservation Actions [top]

Conservation Actions: Conservation Actions Underway
The species is the subject of on-going international research but there are currently no special conservation activities. Human disturbance is strictly regulated in some areas (Antarctic Specially Protected Areas).

Conservation Actions Proposed
Conduct regular surveys to monitor population trends. Continue to improve on existing modelling work to better predict future population changes. Carry out further research into the species' ecology to improve understanding of how environmental changes will affect the population. Continue to monitor the thickness, extent and persistence of Antarctic sea ice, and other environmental variables to assess the availability of suitable breeding habitat. Continue international work to tackle the drivers of projected climate change.

Classifications [top]

9. Marine Neritic -> 9.1. Marine Neritic - Pelagic
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.1. Marine Neritic - Pelagic
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.2. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Rock and Rocky Reefs
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.2. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Rock and Rocky Reefs
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.3. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Loose Rock/pebble/gravel
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.3. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Loose Rock/pebble/gravel
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.4. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Sandy
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.4. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Sandy
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.5. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Sandy-Mud
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.5. Marine Neritic - Subtidal Sandy-Mud
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.7. Marine Neritic - Macroalgal/Kelp
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:No
9. Marine Neritic -> 9.7. Marine Neritic - Macroalgal/Kelp
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:No
10. Marine Oceanic -> 10.1. Marine Oceanic - Epipelagic (0-200m)
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:Yes
10. Marine Oceanic -> 10.1. Marine Oceanic - Epipelagic (0-200m)
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:Yes
10. Marine Oceanic -> 10.2. Marine Oceanic - Mesopelagic (200-1000m)
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:Yes
10. Marine Oceanic -> 10.2. Marine Oceanic - Mesopelagic (200-1000m)
suitability:Suitable season:non-breeding major importance:Yes
12. Marine Intertidal -> 12.1. Marine Intertidal - Rocky Shoreline
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:No
0. Root -> 17. Other
suitability:Suitable season:breeding major importance:Yes
5. Law & policy -> 5.1. Legislation -> 5.1.1. International level

In-Place Research, Monitoring and Planning
  Action Recovery plan:No
  Systematic monitoring scheme:No
In-Place Land/Water Protection and Management
  Conservation sites identified:Yes, over part of range
  Occur in at least one PA:No
  Invasive species control or prevention:No
In-Place Species Management
  Successfully reintroduced or introduced beningly:No
  Subject to ex-situ conservation:No
In-Place Education
  Subject to recent education and awareness programmes:No
  Included in international legislation:No
  Subject to any international management/trade controls:No
11. Climate change & severe weather -> 11.1. Habitat shifting & alteration
♦ timing:Future ♦ scope:Minority (<50%) ♦ severity:Rapid Declines ⇒ Impact score:Low Impact: 4 
→ Stresses
  • 1. Ecosystem stresses -> 1.1. Ecosystem conversion
  • 1. Ecosystem stresses -> 1.2. Ecosystem degradation
  • 2. Species Stresses -> 2.1. Species mortality
  • 2. Species Stresses -> 2.3. Indirect species effects -> 2.3.7. Reduced reproductive success

6. Human intrusions & disturbance -> 6.3. Work & other activities
♦ timing:Ongoing ♦ scope:Minority (<50%) ♦ severity:Negligible declines ⇒ Impact score:Low Impact: 4 
→ Stresses
  • 2. Species Stresses -> 2.2. Species disturbance
  • 2. Species Stresses -> 2.3. Indirect species effects -> 2.3.7. Reduced reproductive success

1. Research -> 1.2. Population size, distribution & trends
1. Research -> 1.3. Life history & ecology
3. Monitoring -> 3.1. Population trends
3. Monitoring -> 3.4. Habitat trends
0. Root -> 4. Other

Bibliography [top]

Ainley, D.; Russell, J.; Jenouvrier, S.; Woehler, E.; Lyver, P. O’B.; Fraser, W. R.; Kooyman, G. L. 2010. Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth’s troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels. Ecological Monographs 80: 49-66.

del Hoyo, J.; Elliot, A.; Sargatal, J. 1992. Handbook of the Birds of the World, vol. 1: Ostrich to Ducks. Lynx Edicions, Barcelona, Spain.

Fretwell, P. T.; LaRue, M. A.; Morin, P.; Kooyman, G. L.; Wienecke, B.; Ratcliffe, N.; Fox, A. J.; Fleming, A. H.; Porter, C.; Trathan, P. N. 2012. An Emperor Penguin Population Estimate: The First Global, Synoptic Survey of a Species from Space. PLoS ONE 7(4).

Fretwell, P. T.; Trathan, P. N.; Wienecke, B.; Kooyman, G. L. 2014. Emperor penguins breeding on ice shelves. PloS one 9(1): e85285.

IUCN. 2016. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2016-3. Available at: www.iucnredlist.org. (Accessed: 07 December 2016).

Jenouvrier, S.; Holland, M.; Stroeve, J.; Serreze, M.; Barbraud, C.; Weimerskirch, H.; Caswell, H. 2014. Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change. Nature Climate Change 4: 715-718.

Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A.,, Trenberth, K. E. 2011. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. . Nature Climate Change 1(7): 360-364.

Meehl, G.A., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, J., Stouffer, R., Taylor, K. 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research. . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 1383-1394.

Robertson, G; Wienecke, B; Emmerson, L; et al. 2014. Long-term trends in the population size and breeding success of emperor penguins at the Taylor Glacier colony, Antarctica. Polar Biology 37(2): 251-259.

Trathan P. N.; Fretwell P. T.; Stonehouse, B. 2011. First Recorded Loss of an Emperor Penguin Colony in the Recent Period of Antarctic Regional Warming: Implications for Other Colonies. PLoS ONE 6(2).

Turner, J.; Comiso, J. C.; Marshall, G. J.; Lachlan-Cope, T. A.; Bracegirdle, T.; Maksym, T.; Meredith, M. P.; Zhaomin Wang; Orr, A. 2009. Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent. . Geophysical Research Letters 36: L08502.

Zwally, H. J.; Comiso, J..C; Parkinson, C. L.; Cavalieri, D. J.; Gloersen, P. 2002. Variability of Antarctic sea ice 1979–1998. Journal of Geophysical Research 107.


Citation: BirdLife International. 2016. Aptenodytes forsteri. In: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2016: e.T22697752A93637033. . Downloaded on 10 December 2016.
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